CNN's veteran commentator Chris Wallace called Biden's performance during the first 2024 debate a "car accident in slow motion." I think that's a positive spin. Joe Biden had an awful night. Sure, he can recover. Possibly. He likely won't. So, what's next?
Presidential Debate Analysis: A Night of Style and Substance
Tonight's presidential debate was a spectacle of contrasts. President Biden aimed to show that he was in control and capable of governing for another four years, while former President Trump sought to demonstrate that Biden was a poor leader who should be replaced. Trump didn't hold back, labeling Biden as "incompetent" and claiming that his policies have led the country into "chaos and decline."
Biden's Performance: A Struggle with Style
President Biden's performance was marred by a lack of finesse that likely will undermine voter confidence in his capability to serve another term. Despite his efforts to project experience and stability, Biden often appeared fatigued and hesitant. His speech was occasionally disjointed, and he stumbled over responses, which reinforce concerns about his age and vitality. This made Biden difficult to watch even for Democratic supporters who wanted him to do well.
This was particularly surprising given the amount of preparation Biden is reported to have conducted. Reports indicate that he spent at least a week secluded at Camp David, engaging in mock debates and intensive rehearsals. This begs the question: Did Biden raise the stakes unnecessarily high with his extensive preparation, or did he simply psyche himself out? The contrast between his rigorous preparation and his underwhelming performance suggest, at a minimum, that the pressure got to him, impacting his ability to deliver a confident and compelling debate. That's the best case scenario. Van Jones, speaking on CNN's political analysis after the debate, expressed disappointment, noting that Biden seemed "tired" and "unprepared," which was especially concerning given the extensive preparation. "This was Biden's chance to show strength and stability, but it just didn't come through," Jones remarked.
Biden's substantive points, while sometimes (and more often than Trump) solid, were overshadowed by his infirm delivery. He emphasized his administration's achievements, particularly in economic recovery and healthcare reforms, but these wins were likely obscured by his performance issues. For viewers looking for reassurance in his leadership, the lack of a commanding -- or even stable -- presence rang alarm bells.
Trump's Performance: A Polished Façade with Little Truthful Substance
In stark contrast, former President Trump displayed a more polished and stable style. His confident demeanor and assertive speaking captured the television audience's attention. Trump effectively leveraged his charisma to dominate the stage, a tactic that has historically resonated with his base.
Interestingly, Trump spent his time differently in the lead-up to the debate, choosing to campaign actively rather than secluding himself for preparation. This raises another intriguing question: Did Trump actually prepare more than he admitted, or did he successfully wing it on the night? His relaxed approach seemed to work in his favor, allowing him to project confidence and spontaneity. Perhaps Biden could have benefited from a similar strategy, focusing less on over-preparation and more on connecting with his television audience in a more relaxed and authentic manner.
Sadly, Trump's performance was riddled with inaccuracies and a tenuous grasp on reality. For instance, he claimed that his administration had created "the greatest economy in the history of our country," ignoring the severe economic downturn during his term due to the pandemic. Additionally, Trump insisted that Biden's policies had led to "record-high inflation," which does not align with the actual data showing that inflation has been a complex issue with multiple contributing factors beyond Biden's policies alone -- many inherited from Trump's administration's actions. While his style was more engaging, the substance of his arguments was frequently baseless. For viewers seeking truth and accountability, Trump's performance fell short of providing a credible alternative.
The Debate's Impact on Voter Perception
The debate highlighted a critical dichotomy: Biden's struggle with stylistic presentation versus Trump's disregard for facts. Beyond style, Biden's performance failed to reassure voters that he is not in deep cognitive decline. His frequent hesitations and moments of apparent confusion might have left viewers with the impression that he wasn't fully mentally there, raising serious concerns about his capacity to lead for another term -- or even finish this one. Biden had a fairly low bar -- and failed to reach even that.
What's Next?
In light of Biden's debate performance, the Democratic Party faces a critical decision: whether to stick with Biden or consider replacing him. If the party chooses to replace him, the top four potential candidates are Vice President Kamala Harris, Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg, California Governor Gavin Newsom, and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer.
Considering Biden's history and personality, it is uncertain whether he would willingly step aside. Biden has often been characterized as determined and resilient, traits that have served him well in the past. He overcame personal tragedies, including the loss of his first wife and daughter in a car accident and later, the death of his son Beau, to continue in politics.
Historically, Biden has not been one to step aside easily. In 1987, he withdrew from the presidential race amid accusations of plagiarism and misstatements, but he later returned to run again, demonstrating his persistence. More recently, during his 2020 campaign, Biden faced numerous doubts about his viability as a candidate, yet he persisted and ultimately won the presidency. The stakes are different now.
To replace Biden before the convention, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) would need to call a special meeting where members could vote on the matter. If Biden were to step down or be replaced after the convention, the party would reconvene to nominate a new candidate, either through a vote of the delegates or by another method decided by the DNC. The process would need to be swift and decisive to maintain party unity and momentum leading into the election. There is certainly a rough road ahead.
Comments